Last updated: 2018-09-09

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Introduction

Some theoretical justification.

A concrete example

Let’s start with a simple example. Let \((Z_1, Z_2, \ldots, Z_p)' \sim N_p(0, \Sigma)\), where \[\Sigma = \begin{bmatrix} 1 & 0.5 & \cdots & 0.5 \\ 0.5 & 1 & \cdots & 0.5 \\ \vdots & \vdots & \ddots & \vdots \\ 0.5 & 0.5 & \cdots & 1 \end{bmatrix} \ . \] In other words, \(Z_1, \ldots, Z_p\) are \(p\) correlated \(N(0, 1)\) random variables, with equal pairwise correlation of \(0.5\).

It’s easy to see that the limiting distribution of the empirical distribution of \(Z_1, \ldots, Z_p\) is \(f = N(\sqrt{1/2}Z, \sqrt{1/2}^2)\), where \(Z\) is a \(N(0, 1)\) random variable. \(f\) has some properties:

  1. \(f\) can be decomposed by Gaussian derivatives.

  2. \(f\) is a random normal distribution; the randomness comes from the fact that \(f\) has a random parameter, this case a random mean \(\sqrt{1/2}Z\).

  3. The distribution of this random mean is \(N(0, \sqrt{1/2}^2)\) whose shape and parameters are supposed to be determined by \(\Sigma\).

  4. The actual value of this random mean is determined by the realization of \(Z\), or eventually, the realization of \(Z_1, \ldots, Z_p\).

Generalization

In a generalization of the aforementioned example, we have \(Z_1, \ldots, Z_p\)

  • correlated \(N(0, 1)\),
  • every two \((Z_i, Z_j)\) bivariate normal with pairwise correlation \(\rho_{ij}\).

Let \(f\) be the limiting distribution of the empirical distribution of \(Z_1, \ldots, Z_p\). We should have

  1. \(Z_1, \ldots, Z_p\) are exchangeable.

  2. \(Z_1, \ldots, Z_p | W \overset{iid}{\sim} f(\cdot|W)\), where \(W := W_1, W_2, \ldots\) are the random parameters of \(f\).

  3. The joint distribution of \(W\) should be determined by \(\Sigma = [\rho_{ij}]_{p \times p}\), or at least we know that the first two moments of \(W\) are determined by \(\Sigma\).

  4. The actual values of \(W\) should be determined by the realization of \(Z_1, \ldots, Z_p\).

Can we justify this using de Finetti?


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